Ed. note: I made two errors in the first draft of this. I referred wrongly to Capt. Rick Taylor when I should have said Capt. Sam Taylor. And I misstated last year’s number of “gang-related” shootings. There were 13, not 15, as I first said. Both errors have been corrected below.
From Jan. 1 through November 15 of 2014, Lakeland suffered 33 intentional shootings that hit the flesh of someone else. (This does not include suicides, which would be a much, much higher number.) In 2014, gun violence, particularly among young black men and boys, was probably our worst city problem.
Thus far in 2015, through Nov. 15, we’ve had 15 shootings. That’s a 55 percent reduction year-over-year. All the standard cliches about not jinxing this progress stand. Knock on wood. Cross your fingers. Etc.
But this isn’t a triumphal victory lap. No one is spiking the ball. Rather, it is important to recognize a period of statistical improvement that translates into human well-being — at least on its face. It’s important to recognize it so we can understand what caused it, even if it changes next month. Moreover, it’s important to praise both the police and ourselves as Lakeland citizens. Feeling bad about life in modern America is a pathology of sorts. Celebrating victories, while recognizing their impermanence and incompleteness, is vital to living happily.
It’s worth noting that this reduction in shootings has occurred at the same time there is supposedly a “Ferguson effect” and “war on police” driving up American crime — a false narrative thoroughly debunked in this excellent article and study.
Here’s a little background on how these Lakeland numbers came up.
I happened to see a Tweet from Barry Friedman at Lakeland Now in which he quoted LPD Capt. Sam Taylor talking about the reduction of gun violence in certain northwest-area neighborhoods that had been particular trouble spots in the last couple years. Taylor credited the reduced violence to putting “most” gang members in those areas in jail.
Good news from LPD at #lkld gang task force meet: No problems on Halloween or at LHS-KHS game. Reason: most known gang members are jailed.
— lkld now (@lkldnow) November 9, 2015
Barry later clarified:
@BillyTownsend Good reporter question. The captain actually said "the majority of known gang members." He probably meant major bad dudes.
— lkld now (@lkldnow) November 9, 2015
“Most” or “majority” are words that get my attention; and this led to an ongoing conversation with LPD Chief Larry Giddens and Taylor about violence and “gang members.” I’m going to get into this more deeply in a later post. But for now, it suffices to say that Taylor misspoke. LPD thinks it has put “most” of the most dangerous and violent “gang members” in jail. They sent me a sheet with 23 “successes” identified. They also told me that Lakeland has identified 301 people as current “gang members” in 2015, up from 257 in 2014.
At the same time, Taylor and Giddens told me that Lakeland’s “gang-related” shootings dropped even more than overall shootings, from 13 to 4. That’s a 69 percent reduction by my calculations.
That suggests a lot of things, none of which say that arresting most gang members reduced shootings. To me, it most powerfully suggests that not all gang members are created equal, which is obvious on its face if you think about it.
However, Florida law makes no distinction among gang members in its efforts to identify them and subject them to increased criminal penalty. You can see what makes a gang member in chapter 874 of Florida statutes. It is a very, very, very low bar. It’s not a crime to be a gang member; but gang membership enhances your sentences if you’re convicted of a crime. A first degree misdemeanor becomes a third degree felony, for instance. Like I said, I’m going to delve into “gang member” issues more thoroughly in a future post.
As Giddens, Taylor, and I discussed this over email and the phone, LPD ran year-over-year shooting data from Jan. 1 through Nov. 15. And that’s where the numbers I cited above came from. LPD did not plan to present the numbers itself until after the end of the year. In fact, Giddens was ambivalent about releasing the numbers now for fear of having a bad December. But like I said, I think good data is as important to analyze as bad. And the people doing this hard work — police and civilian — deserve a little pat on the back.
I am on record not believing most crime stats. But shootings are infrequent enough and traumatic enough that I don’t think they are easily gamed. So I believe these shooting numbers. I take the “gang member” numbers — both shootings and membership — with a massive grain of salt because of how easy it is to define someone as gang member. It is not remotely scientific.
LPD did not run year-over-year homicides yet. But I can only remember one in 2015 — because it happened on my street. I’m sure there are a handful of others; but I think it’s safe to assume homicides are also down significantly.
LPD points to a number of specific actions and factors that have helped reduce violence in specific neighborhoods — from using school resource officers aggressively to the community sourcing of an African-American detective who works with one of the federal law enforcement agencies but is detailed to LPD to increased activities for young people.
From the outside looking in, it appears to me that officers targeted a small and specific layer of young men for arrest — and then worked closely with neighbors and social service providers and people who know the kids who are most likely to get registered as “gang member.” That seems to have produced results. Or maybe the young men who were harming each other got tired or matured.
Whatever specifically happened, it seems that lots of people — from LPD to residents of key neighborhoods — cared enough about their communities to fight for them intelligently. I will be trying to understand what that actually entails on the ground — and what worked. I see this as an ongoing conversation.
But for now, this is simply good news. It’s a good way to head into Thanksgiving, no matter what happens in the weeks, months, and years to come.